A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has something to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
